Down 3-2 in the bottom of the thirteenth inning, Albert Pujols hits a two-run bomb with two outs, worth 79%. Before the shot, the Mets had a 19% chance of winning. In the bottom of the tenth with two outs and runners on first and third, Cliff Floyd homered off of Brendan Donnelly to make the final score 5-3. Ryan to send the Fenway faithful home happy. With two outs in the bottom of the ninth and trailing 4-3, David Ortiz hit a three-run home run off of B.J. Unfortunately, the methodology used did not account for walk-off home runs, and as a result I missed these plays that would have been within the top five, and which I'm sure many readers will remember (whether fondly or not). The column relating high impact performances listed the five largest-impact plays of 2005. This point gives us the opportunity to address walk-off home runs. That's what happens when you put a '0' where a '2' should be. As Bill intuits, the Yanks WX with zero outs was in fact 46%. In fact, the WX for the Yankees at that point was actually 14.9%, and not 46%, making Posada's homer worth 85.1%. I could see the WX for the Yankees hitting 46% after Damon got on base to start the 9th, but with 2 outs and a man on 2nd I would be surprised if the WX was greater than 20%." Jorge makes an out more than 54% of the time (as does just about every player not Bonds or Giambi), and this was a situation where an out would have ended the game. "I'm wondering how the Yanks WX could possibly have been that high preceding Posada's HR. Reader Bill Watson-Canning put it this way: Several readers, and our own Rany Jazayerli, quickly pointed out the absurdity of that notion. And both times I mentioned that the Yankees probability of winning before the homerun was 46% making Posada's blow worth 54% in terms of WX. In each of the last two columns I referenced Jorge Posada's May 17th homerun to cap the Yanks 14-13 comeback.
So this week, we'll look at three swinging strikes from your humble author to go along with a quick take on the humidity of the front range. Those who write about the game certainly strive to hit the mark in excess of 65% of the time, but from time to time we too strike out. And last week SABR members enjoyed a lively discussion on the their listserve discussing the players who made the most outs in a season (a hint: "Omar the Outmaker" takes three of the top ten spots).įailure is inherent in the game, a fact that George Will, in a recent interview with our own Will Carroll, credits with making baseball "especially suited for a nation in which the politics are democratic." This is so because the game, like our republic, requires both the patience to endure that failure and the compromise of "settling for the half loaf." After all, even the best hitters fail 65% of the time, and the best teams lose 60 times per season.
Pete Rose made almost 10,000 outs in his career. Suppose your errors were counted and published every day, like those of a baseball player."Įvery fan knows that Babe Ruth struck out over 1,300 times to go along with his 714 home runs. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.Īlready a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday.
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